Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price action dating back to 2011 suggests that the price of the coin could peak between $ 75,000 and $ 306,000, research from Kraken shows.
Based on a reading of a logarithmic growth curve connecting all-time highs and lows, a coin price of $ 75,000 would signal Bitcoin’s entry into overbought territory, marking the end of its current bull run.
Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin is likely to continue to gradually appreciate at price before turning parabolic and hitting resistance, signaling the end of its fourth bull market cycle, the report states.
Analysis of historical price pullbacks yields some even bolder predictions. All things being equal, if BTC continued along its current growth curve and then entered a pullback similar to previous market dips, the next bottom would be around $ 30,000.
Based on this proposed bottom, you can try to make predictions about the next market peak, depending on the extent of the pullback.
If Bitcoin were to retreat 70% during the current cycle, the price of the coin would have to reach a peak of $ 102,000 to reach the mentioned low of $ 30,000.
Similarly, a 90% drop would place the next high at $ 306,000, while an 86% drop, the average pullback from previous market cycles, would imply a next market peak of $ 221,000. Either way, the report claims, history would suggest that Bitcoin remains a long way off from the top of the market.
Diving into the historical data once again, the first quarter of 2021 proved to be the best performing third quarter in the 12 years of Bitcoin’s existence, based on percentage return and annualized volatility.
Kraken’s research shows that March has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin, with the price of the coin appreciating only twice during this period since it began trading. In the past, March, on average, underperformed February’s growth by 11%.
The report also notes that Bitcoin is now trending similar to that of the first quarter of 2013, the most fruitful first quarter in the currency’s history. A 0.82 correlation between the two is an encouraging sign and could subvert the historical trend that causes Bitcoin to underperform in March.
Bitcoin posted five consecutive months of positive returns at press time. That’s a sight that’s only been seen once before: in 2017, during the run-up to that year’s bull run and the market peak afterward.